Working Paper #578
Regional Growth Variability
Peter Linneman · Deborah Moy
Macroeconomics United States Urban
Over the next twenty years, an increasingly prosperous U.S. population is expected to grow by 65 million, bringing with it significant infrastructure requirements, as well as the attendant demand for consumer and business goods and services. As this growth takes place, the national and local economies will go through hot and cold periods. This paper examines which MSAs will over-react and which will under-react as the U.S. economy moves through its economic cycles. Those that over-react will be great places to be on the up-cycle (around trend growth), but will disproportionately suffer during down-cycles, while those that under-react will grow more steadily around their trends over the cycle.